SOIL Studies

SOIL Studies

2021, Vol 10, Num, 2     (Pages: 056-066)

Possibil Agricultural Drought Period of Konya Closed Basin Based on HadGEM2 Global Climate Model

İsmail TAŞ 1 ,Yusuf Ersoy YILDIRIM 2

1 Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üni. Ziraat Fak. Tarımsal Yapılar ve Sulama Bölümü. Çanakkale
2 Ankara Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Tarımsal Yapılar ve Sulama Bölümü, Ankara

DOI: 10.21657/topraksu.806184
Viewed: 360
Downloaded : 163

Drought is one of the most dangerous natural disasters that can have serious impacts on the economy and environmental systems, especially on living life. When compared with other disasters, drought has many differences with respect to structure. In particular, agricultural droughts cause great costs as well as serious consequences. According to the IPCC report of 2014, Turkey will increase in the future temperature scenarios rainfall is expected to decrease the contrast. When this situation is taken into consideration, it is estimated that the duration and severity of drought disasters likely to be experienced throughout our country will increase. The determination of agricultural droughts that are likely to occur in the future affects not only sustainable agricultural production but also all other production areas. In this study, the monthly rainfall series estimated up to 2100 under the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) in the HadGEM2 global climate model for Konya Closed Basin were used. The obtained monthly rainfall series were analysis with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). As a result of the analysis of SPI, it was detected 4 agricultural drought periods (2043-2044, 2046- 2047, 2086-2087 and 2090-2091) for RCP 4.5 scenario. According to RCP 8.5 scenario, it was detected 5 agricultural drought periods (2041-2043, 2060 – 2062, 2072 – 2074, 2092-2094 ve 2095-2097). The severity distribution maps were prepare for the determined agricultural drought periods in the basin. It should be taken precautions in time against the water deficit that will occur in agricultural drought periods which may occur in Konya Closed Basin. In addition, losses in agricultural production should be minimized by preparing water management plans. Measures to be taken to reduce drought effects will directly contribute to the regional producer and contribute to the production and economy of the country.

Keywords : Agricultural drought, SPI, HadGEM2, Irrigation water